Over at the College of Auto Industry Analysts and Economists, 2018 is shaping up as one of those years that will get deconstructed and parsed and studied for decades.

A jumble of factors now in play could turn U.S. light-vehicle sales in any which direction.

So, class, what matters most: lower taxes or higher interest rates? And what about that record number of used vehicles coming off lease?

Has pent-up demand really petered out? And what to make of rising oil prices?

There's a lot to ponder, but … so far, so good.

U.S. volume is expected to decline for a second straight year, yet January sales rose 1.2 percent from the year-earlier period to 1.16 million vehicles — the fifth-best January ever. And transaction prices soared.